The Oscars: Who Will Win, Who Should Win?
What a boring awards race this has been. Save a few exceptions, this year’s Oscars ground has been nothing but unremarkable.
You know the quality has been low when PGA decides to extend its highest honor to Green Book, a movie I have nothing against -I did genuinely enjoy it-, but I am really struggling to place it at the same level of some old favorites; or when a well-intentioned but nevertheless superficial caricature of one of our era’s real geniuses garners so much attention from the Academy (looking at you, Bohemian Rhapsody). And what can I say about A Star is Born? Sure, Lady Gaga turns out to be a jaw-dropping artist, but what is new about that? What is everyone gushing about?!
There is one movie in particular that sank its hooks in my heart. Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite is a masterful showcase of wit and good taste. It does its name justice and amounts to this year’s undisputed best film, by a very, very, veeeeeery wide margin. It’s perhaps only rivaled by Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War.
But the Academy isn’t precisely known for honoring the most worthy or deserving - but the most adequate or timely at each point in time. In a year when the production team behind the Oscars ceremony is aiming to attract more viewers (they almost even decided to give out some awards during commercial break - no further comments needed), it seems unlikely they will go for the more artsy to the detriment of the most appealing.
With that being said, here go my predictions of who will, who could and, perhaps most importantly, who should win at this year’s Academy Awards.
BEST PICTURE
Roma hit all the right notes for me, but I somehow feel one is almost forced to love the film given all the buzz surrounding it. I’m hoping the preferential ballot system will end up favoring this one and not Green Book - because I really understand The Favorite is most definitely a long shot, infuriatingly enough.
It goes without saying I don’t think either A Star is Born, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Blackkklansman or Black Panther are Best Picture material.
Will Win: ROMA
Potential Spoiler: GREEN BOOK
Should Win: THE FAVOURITE
BEST DIRECTOR
Given all the love for Roma, Cuarón has this one in the bag, especially after wins in virtually every awards precursor, including DGA, Golden Globes or BAFTA.
Will Win: ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)
Potential Spoiler: SPIKE LEE (BLACKKKLANSMAN)
Should Win: YORGOS LANTHIMOS (THE FAVOURITE)
BEST ACTRESS
As much as I love Olivia Colman’s fascinating turn, Glenn Close holds the record for the most nominated actress without an Oscar win. Acknowledging the great talent of this acting powerhouse is long overdue. Plus, in The Wife she is truly magnificent.
Will Win: GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)
Potential Spoiler: OLIVIA COLMAN (THE FAVOURITE)
Should Win: GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)
BEST ACTOR
It’s hard to bet against Malek, who won at SAG, Golden Globes and BAFTA. It’s not a choice I will agree with, when it happens, but I’ve already wrapped my head around the idea of him beating the infamously overlooked performance Viggo Mortensen gives in Green Book. He’s right up there with the acting Gods.
Will Win: RAMI MALEK (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)
Potential Spoiler: CHRISTIAN BALE (VICE)
Should Win: VIGGO MORTENSEN (GREEN BOOK)
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Regina King, who would have been my choice had she been nominated by SAG, is in the midst of a race against the odds. No actress has ever won without a nomination from the actors guild. Amy Adams may (finally) take the stage on Sunday, while I would have wished to see Rachel Weisz get recognition for her *did I already say this* amaaaaaaaaazing work in The Favourite.
Will Win: AMY ADAMS (VICE)
Potential Spoiler: REGINA KING (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)
Should Win: RACHEL WEISZ (THE FAVOURITE)
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali won TOO recently for me to consider it fair for Richard E. Grant’s talent go unnoticed, yet again. Ali will win, though. And it kinda sucks.
Will Win: MAHERSHALA ALI (GREEN BOOK)
Potential Spoiler: RICHARD E. GRANT (CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)
Should Win: RICHARD E. GRANT (CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Three words: it’s only fair.
Will Win: THE FAVOURITE
Potential Spoiler: GREEN BOOK
Should Win: THE FAVOURITE
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Spike Lee on his way to Oscar glory.
Will Win: BLACKKKLANSMAN
Potential Spoiler: CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Should Win: CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
I’m hoping Roma’s likely win in the Best Picture category allows Cold War get the love it deserves. It’s a hard bet, but I’m gonna trust my gut here.
Will Win: COLD WAR
Potential Spoiler: ROMA
Should Win: COLD WAR
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That’s all.
Will Win: SHALLOW (A STAR IS BORN)
Potential Spoiler: -
Should Win: SHALLOW (A STAR IS BORN
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
There’s no way The Favourite’s gorgeous sets and decorations won’t win. If that’s the case, I’ll simply give up on the Academy. This time for good.
Will Win: THE FAVOURITE
Potential Spoiler: FIRST MAN
Should Win: THE FAVOURITE
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The camera in Cold War moves so intuitively that it becomes really hard not to fall in love, despite not speaking Polish in the first place. But, again… Cuarón.
Will Win: ROMA
Potential Spoiler: COLD WAR
Should Win: COLD WAR