To Govern or Not to Govern
The current state of German politics has left many around Europe feeling uneasy about the country’s future. The fact that Europe’s largest economy and one of its main political players has been left without a government for four months has left academics, journalists and laymen alike in confusion. They predict everything from Angela Merkel’s demise to the collapse of the entire European edifice.
However, the federal elections that took place on 24th of September produced an outcome that was not so unusual. Since the time of absolute majorities belongs to a distant past in Europe’s systems of proportional representation, it is anything but surprising that Germans elected a Bundestag [Germany’s federal parliament] without clear majorities. Angela Merkel’s CDU (in combination with its moody Bavarian lederhosen partners-in-crime, the CSU) remained the strongest force, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD), the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Liberals (FDP) and the Green Party. The biggest difference to previous elections is that the SPD had loudly and proudly proclaimed not to enter into another Grand Coalition (GroKo) with Angela Merkel. After having been humiliated by the Eternal Chancellor once again and considering the fact that this GroKo constellation has become anathema to many citizens, often being associated with the status quo and political deadlock, it seemed the most logical step for the Socialists to take. Add to that the quite disturbing realization that the Bundestag would henceforth include an impertinently Eurosceptic and blatantly racist party, whose MPs have a strange fetish for animal ties.
This bold move, in turn, forced an otherwise risk-averse Angela Merkel to pursue a “revolutionary” idea – at least for German standards. She started an attempt to form a so-called “Jamaica Coalition”, including her (and the Bavarian) Christian Democrats, the Liberals and the Green Party. However, as fun as it might have been to see such a diverse group of politicians spice up Germany’s political landscape for a change, the Liberals walked out, citing the absence of true commitment to implement reforms, and the talks failed.
That sent Angela on a search for a new (or old) partner to govern with. As it seems, the Socialists’ masochist drive eventually prevailed over their common sense, because just last week they agreed to enter into coalition negotiations with the conservatives. This means that Germany will almost certainly end up with four more years of GroKo, which is said to be rebranded as Cooperation Coalition (KoKo).
So, what implications might this have for the country’s future? Well, here are three predictions about this new old government:
It will leave Germans annoyed with yet another four years of political inaction, no deep-seated reform and certainly no big changes (and essentially drive up the AfD’s vote share). But then again, big change has never gone down well with Germans anyway.
It will give the Social Democrats the unprecedented chance to break their new record of obtaining the worst election result since 1949, i.e. they will do even worse in the next election.
But, it will also ring in another period of the never-ending reign of Angela Merkel, which is something that many Germans as well as many of their European concitoyens will be greatly relieved by.
After all – and let’s all be honest here – no one really likes change and together with her energetic French counterpart, Angela Merkel will offer Germany, and consequently the European Union, four more years of stability and predictability, something the Old Continent is in dire need of.
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