The Shifting Sands of Saudi Arabia
As a result of the extensive delegation of duties from his aging and ailing father, King Salman bin Abdel-Aziz, the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s power has witnessed a meteoric rise. King Abdel-Aziz named his favored 31-year-old son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince in June 2017 striving to end the gerontocracy managing a youthful state where more than half the population is under the age of 30. Following his appointment, the Crown Prince used his allies controlling the three branches of security to orchestrate his power purge to achieve almost absolute authority. Not only is the extent of this authority unprecedented for a crown prince, the fact that he actually exercises it on a regular basis is the main difference between him and previous generations of rulers.
On November 4th 2017, Prince Salman ordered the detainment of more than 200 senior princes, ministers and business figures. He demonstrated no hesitation in criminally charging senior royal family members, government ministers and business elites who were considered immune from prosecution for generations. Although there may be justifications for this mass detention due to the widespread nepotism and corruption, this drastic move may be seen as a consolidation of his power, defining the young prince as the Kingdom’s absolute monarch. It also serves as a warning to the ruling family that opposition to social and economic liberalization, particularly to protect vested interests, will not be tolerated.
Prince Salman rightly acknowledges the historically unsustainable dependence on oil. Accordingly, he has announced plans for his economic master plan named “Vision 2030” incorporating an ambitious $500 Bn economic district where men and women can interact publically amidst cutting edge technology. With his ability and willingness to override religious conservatives, the ban on women driving will be lifted along with scaled back guardianship laws restricting women’s roles. The scale and scope of these reforms will diversify and liberalize the economy enough to survive in an era with low oil prices. The monarch is emphatic towards his 15-year reform program, essentially changing numerous aspects of public and private life in Saudi Arabia. His vow to transform the country to “moderate Islamic rule” with an open society empowering citizens is a key pillar aimed at luring foreign investors. The level of global support and financial backing will be a key factor determining the success of the reform program.
With the three attributes of absolute power, courage of conviction and young age, the crown prince will be ruling Saudi Arabia for decades to come. It is almost assured that he will plough through rapid and drastic reforms across the economic, legal, social and religious spectrums that will impact on every Saudi citizen, particularly the younger majority who will take advantage of the newly granted liberties. Equally important is the Saudi citizens’ acceptance of reductions in government social support that included government jobs plus generous subsidies covering housing, education, healthcare and even wedding costs. This government largess has been a hallmark for every Saudi citizen since the discovery of oil that transformed the desert dunes into a relatively rich country.
Perhaps the greatest threat to the young Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the fact that he has not been in power long enough to neutralize his long list of enemies. The risk of an internal uprising due to the depth and breadth of the changes enforced on a country not familiar with and possibly rejecting change could be lethal to his throne. Like the scorching winds that shape the dunes across the desert, no one can accurately predict the final future status of the desert kingdom.
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