Qatar: the Symbol of the Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East
On the 5th of June 2017, Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt announced an economic blockade on Qatar, accusing them of financing terrorist organisations as well as criticising Qatar’s reconciliation with Iran.
The severing of diplomatic relations included the withdrawal of ambassadors as well as the introduction of trade and travel bans. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia closed its border with Qatar, which was its only land border, and accused it of “embracing various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilising the region”. Qatar responded by denying all allegations against them, supported by their allies: Iran and Turkey. However, the US’ position shifted throughout the conflict, further deepening the region’s instability.
US’ position on the conflict:
The US’ foreign policy has historically revolved around the Middle East and its resources, and the Trump administration has been no different thus far. Nonetheless, Trump’s administration has not been clear on its position regarding the ongoing tensions between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
On one hand, Trump directly took a stand by supporting Saudi Arabia’s claims against Qatar, stating that “Qatar has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level” and proudly adding that he agrees with Saudi Arabia on their decision to start the blockade. In contrast, the US’ Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, publicly rebuked the President’s position by insisting that Saudi Arabia has not properly justified their embargo on Qatar.
The Secretary of State’s reaction is one that remains coherent with the fact that Qatar hosts the largest US military basement in the Middle East, from where most operations against ISIS are launched. As such, it is in the US’ interests to keep Qatar as a close ally considering that it has requested the latter to host the representatives of the Taliban and the Hamas in order to resolve the conflicts within Afghanistan and Israeli-Palestine respectively. Consequently, Trump decided to become a mediator in the crisis, which could impact the US’ military presence in the Middle East.
Qatar-Saudi Arabia's relations:
Although Qatar and Saudi Arabia may be considered similar in terms of Islamic influence, both being part of conservative movements within Sunni Islam, they have participated in a race for regional influence and power since 1992. This race was conducted through proxy conflicts, referred to as the Second Arab Cold War. Their relationship has deteriorated since the beginning of the Arab Spring, which left a power vacuum both have attempted to fill.
On one hand, Saudi Arabia stood by the regimes of the countries impacted by the Arab Spring uprisings, while Qatar supported the citizens uprising against their governments. Qatar’s purpose was clear: to promote a new Muslim Brotherhood leadership within the countries of unstable governance. The Qatari Emir stated: “They don't like our independence, the way we are thinking. We want freedom of speech for the people of the region and they're not happy with that, and so they think that this is a threat to them."
Iran-Saudi's relations:
Saudi Arabia is also competing against Iran for regional influence in the Middle East. This has resulted in their support for opposing sides in conflicts, creating proxy wars between them. This is most clear in the ongoing conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The US' support for Saudi Arabia along with a growing Russian support for Iran has drawn comparisons to the Cold War era.
In the context of Syria’s current civil war, Iran is supporting the Syrian government militarily with billions of dollars of aid while Saudi Arabia is a major supplier of aid to the rebel groups. Both countries have accused each other of supporting terrorism.
According to Professor Balanche, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East revolves around an ‘Iranian economic corridor’, supported by the Russians, from Tehran to Beirut, through Baghdad and Damas. He believes that the Yemen civil war is a diversion to divert Saudi Arabia from the Syrian conflict and that this corridor is key for the reconstruction and stabilisation of Syria. Thus leading to the rapprochement of Lebanese Christians, Iraqi Shiites, and Syrian Sunnis with Iran, consequently reducing Saudi Arabia’s control and influence over these groups.
Although this conflict, principally between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, has reached a stalemate with no further escalations, Qatar is suffering from the blockade. Furthermore, the stand against Qatar has led to its reconciliation with Iran, which is the opposite effect of what the blockade was meant to do. Today the Arab Cold War is more tensed than ever and doesn’t seem like it will be resolved in the near future.
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