Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win
BEST PICTURE
The great thing about this year’s selection of Best Picture nominees is that each of these nine films appeals to a specific audience, while not failing to reveal a deeper truth to us all. From exquisite period pieces like The Post or Darkest Hour (that metro scene was totally off, though!), which remind us that democracy is both precious and fragile; coming-of-age pictures including Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird, which movingly capture the struggles of adolescence; traditional character-centered stories like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Phantom Thread, to crowd pleasing Dunkirk, The Shape of Water and Get Out — all of which pay homage to moviemaking.
I can’t detach myself from the perception that only eight of these nine movies are deserving nominees. I remain unable to comprehend the hype that has built around Get Out. More than worthy Oscar material, I see it as an entertaining TV movie. That’s all.
Even if I despise the fact of having to choose among the remaining eight, if I was ever invited to join the pool of real voters (any Academy member reading?) I would fill out my Oscar ballot by process of elimination. The Shape of Water would come on top because I genuinely believe it has something to offer to everybody. It’s the perfect example of how movies encapsulate a message of universality and empathy. Call Me By Your Name would be second, Phantom Thread would come third, Three Billboards would take my fourth position, and The Post would close the top five. (I have elaborated this list very aware of how arbitrary, subjective and flat-out unfair it is to compare pieces of art, so forgive my indiscretion!).
But who is really going home with the top prize? Both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards seem in really good shape. The former garnered honors from the Directors’ & Producers’ branches, highly accurate awards precursors, and the latter won the Screen Actors’ Guild ensemble prize, pertaining to the largest voter branch within the Academy. Rumor has it Get Out is also gathering a lot of support, partly thanks to an effective marketing push in the last stretch of this awards campaign.
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Potential Spoiler: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
BEST DIRECTOR
I got rid of Jordan Peele right away (have I mentioned how little I enjoyed Get Out?). Each of the remaining nominees has a strong case to make, an individual narrative that could make them winners. Guillermo del Toro has proven, yet again, that he possesses an unmatched imagination in its whooping restlessness; Greta Gerwig is the only woman nominated (shame on the Academy, Dee Rees should have landed a nod!) and her movie is one of this year’s most beautifully executed; Paul Thomas Anderson is a master at the peak of his powers, and only a genius like Christopher Nolan could find new ways of dramatizing war stories.
Still, it seems like Del Toro will take this one, as well — and rightfully so.
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Potential Spoiler: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
BEST ACTRESS
If it were up to me, Meryl would get an Oscar every year. In The Post, she delivers one of her finest performances to date. However, Frances McDormand deserves to win this year for her virtuoso portrayal of a mother mourning the loss of her daughter. She pretty much has it in the bag, after taking home the SAG, the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, among others.
I thought Saoirse Ronan was gloriously annoying in Lady Bird (go, Greta, go!); Sally Hawkins was effortlessly magnetic in The Shape of Water. Margot Robbie has been also getting rave reviews for her turn in I, Tonya.
But it has to be Frances. It will be her.
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Potential Spoiler: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
BEST ACTOR
This year, the Best Actor category is the best example of how the most flashy, over-the-top material may triumph over subtleness. Yes, Gary Oldman was show-stopping as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, but… didn’t it feel like something we had seen before? While he is widely expected to -deservingly- win the Oscar, my vote goes to Timothée Chalamet. His work in Call Me By Your Name feels groundbreaking and fresh. I believe he delivered the very best performance of the year.
Daniel Day Lewis owns every scene in Phantom Thread. Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out was average. Denzel Washington… was he even in a movie this year, or did they just randomly write his name down?
Anyway, it will be Gary Oldman, and I’ll be happy for him. But it should be Chalamet.
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Potential Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Who Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer plays Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water, so nothing new, but I loved her! Mary J. Blige and Lesley Manville, especially the latter, were excellent in Mudbound and Phantom Thread, respectively.
Still, Allison Janney will take this one home. Should she, though? I definitely won’t be bothered, but Laurie Metcalf really captivated me in Lady Bird. Her honest and vulnerable portrayal of a mother (or should I say a superhero?) is being unjustly undervalued.
Who Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Potential Spoiler: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I haven’t seen All The Money in the World, so I can’t talk about Christopher Plummer’s performance. But don’t you have the feeling his nomination may have been the best way to tell Kevin Spacey “In Your Face”? (Let us not forget Spacey was removed from the picture following the outbreak of sexual harassment accusations against him, and replaced by Plummer…)
Richard Jenkins was good, still not the best part of The Shape of Water. The two guys from the Three Billboards, Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell, inarguably delivered. Rockwell is set to take home the golden statue — and as much as I enjoyed his performance, it was Willem Dafoe’s empathetic turn in The Florida Project (go see this movie!!) that blew my mind.
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)
Potential Spoiler: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Get Out seems ready to prevail in this category. Don’t ask me why, I can’t make sense of it. Or will the Academy surprise me by rewarding Del Toro here as well? Lady Bird? Or Three Billboards? I’m counting The Big Sick out right away, because… has anybody seen it?
Who Will Win: Get Out
Potential Spoiler: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory will, and should, win for his phenomenal work in Call Me By Your Name. Fight me… I’ll fight you back.
Who Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Potential Spoiler: Mudbound
Who Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
I really loved the music from The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread and Three Billboards. Dunkirk’s score wasn’t a highlight for me, nor was Star Wars'.
If any of the three first ones wins, I’ll be happy. But I have a feeling this one will also go to The Shape of Water, mostly because even weeks after seeing the movie you will find yourself humming La Javanaise…
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Potential Spoiler: Phantom Thread
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I get the love for Coco, but Sufjan Stevens’ “Mystery of Love” went straight to my heart and hasn’t left ever since I saw Call Me By Your Name.
Who Will Win: “Remember Me” (Coco)
Potential Spoiler: “Mystery of Love" (Call Me By Your Name)
Who Should Win: “Mystery of Love" (Call Me By Your Name)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
If you didn’t sleep through Blade Runner 2049, congratulations! I must admit, however, that Deakins’ camera work was absolutely stunning — and also felt technically more challenging than the other nominees.
Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Potential Spoiler: Mudbound
Who Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
A big part of why The Shape of Water was so captivating was its amazing production values. Still, I fear Blade Runner will take this one as well.
Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Potential Spoiler: The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: The Shape of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour seems the unrivaled favorite here, and will pull a victory à la Iron Lady for the amazing transformation Gary Oldman underwent to become Churchill.
Who Will Win: Darkest Hour
Potent
ial Spoiler: -
Who Should Win: Darkest Hour
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
What set of costumes this year matches more perfectly the storyline than those in Phantom Thread? The gorgeous, cinematic pieces Woodcock comes up with reveal not only his mastery, but also his inner conflict. Giving this one to Phantom Thread feels like poetic justice.
Who Will Win: Phantom Thread
Potential Spoiler: The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Phantom Thread
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