German Grand Coalition takes a hit in Bavaria
The federal state of Bavaria went to the polls on October 14 and the results look rather discouraging for the Grand Coalition in Berlin. Despite winning the election with 37.2% of the votes, the Christian Social Union, which is the regional sister party to the Christian Democrats of chancellor Merkel, suffered heavy losses of around -10.5% compared to the last election.
A similar performance can be observed for the Social Democrats, who were able to achieve a mere 9.7%, losing -10.9% since 2013. The big winners were the Green party, coming in as second strongest power with 17.5% (+8.9%, 2013), and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a right-wing populist party establishing themselves for the first time in the Landtag (state parliament) with 10.2% (+10.2%, 2013).
The other two parties reaching the threshold of 5% needed to enter the Landtag were the Free Voters (FW), who are a centrist party following self-described pragmatic politics without a clear ideological orientation, with 11.6% (+2.6%, 2013), and the liberal FDP barely making it with 5.1% (+1.8%). With a high voter turnout of 72.4% this is a hard hit against the established parties of the Grand Coalition, which is formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD.
What does this mean for Germany? A voter migration is evident with discontent citizens switching primarily from the incumbent Grand Coalition parties to both the Green Party and the AfD in the Bavarian state. Reasons for this development are manifold, and include traditional CSU voters being unsatisfied by Angela Merkel’s refugee policy. Additionally, there has been a significant criticism of the SPD coming from the voter base, with claims that the party has been losing its identity in the Grand Coalition over the last couple of years.
The fact that they are in this coalition, and have been for the last two governments already, made it difficult for them to really take a strong position against the CDU during the campaign. Also, internal disputes since the coalition took office earlier this year is said to be another factor negatively affecting the election results for both parties.
The implications of the vote at a European level revolve mainly around the AfD, which is an anti-European, right-wing populist party. Its increase in popularity shows that Germany is not clear of the anti-liberal and anti-EU sentiment that has been spreading in many member states of the EU.
The realignment of German politics could make it difficult to form a coalition that is capable of effectively ruling on the national level. This development has become common in countries like Spain, Sweden, and Netherlands, among other EU countries. This trend is predicted to complicate further Eurozone integration, deepening of coherent cooperation and common projects within the Union.
Whether the recent disappointment in Bavaria for the two historically biggest and most important parties in Germany has only been an outlier or the indicator of a permanent development in national politics will be further revealed in the state parliament elections next week in Hesse.
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