Bullies at sea bring Russia-Ukraine tension to the West's main stage
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are flaring up after a clash at sea between the two states escalated last month. On 25 November, Russian ships targeted three Ukrainian naval vessels which were headed towards the Kerch Strait. They first rammed them and then moved on to open fire before ultimately seizing the Ukrainian navy ships. As of now, Russia still holds all three ships in their possession and keeps several Ukrainian sailors in detention.
This hostility triggered strong reactions from the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, who said that this might be the beginning of what could become a large-scale invasion and called for support from the West. Putin made clear that from their perspective Russia hasn’t done anything illegal and that the incident was provoked by Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western leaders have done little to rein in the situation besides condemning Russia’s behavior.
The Kerch Strait is of high importance since it links the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov and is the only access point to Ukrainian ports in the area. Since the strategic annexation of Crimea (a pro-Russian Ukranian region rich in oil and gas) in 2014, it has been under control of the Kremlin and the new bridge spanning over it has helped to consolidate Russian power in the region, enabling Russia to inspect Ukrainian ships regularly. Evidently, the access to the Sea of Azov and its free navigation is vital to the Ukrainian economy and in 2003 both states signed an agreement declaring that it should be shared waters and accessible to both parties.
Reacting to the Russian aggression, Poroshenko has imposed martial law and made clear that “Russia will pay a huge price if they attack us.” Along other implications, this means that the military can request and confiscate private property and that mass gatherings are banned. Also, Ukrainian authorities have imposed a travel ban for Russian men aged 16-60 trying to enter the country.
This move by the Ukrainian President hasn’t been without criticism. In fact, he initially wanted to impose country-wide and 60-day measures, but his parliament limited the extent of such action to a month and confined it only to the regions bordering Russia, implying the fear of a power grab by Poroshenko.
Elections in the country are next year and critics argue that even though Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, the president didn’t impose martial law back then because it didn’t suit his political agenda and only does so now because he wants to exploit the situation. Mr. Putin joins in on these critics claiming that Mr. Poroshenko is “staging a provocation to boost his poll ratings.”
Russia has maintained their position arguing that Ukrainian “vessels illegally entered its waters.” Nevertheless, both Russian and Ukrainian data shows that the attack occurred in the Black Sea and far enough off the coast of occupied Crimea to be considered international waters. This raises a lot of question marks regarding the Russian justification for their actions.
Additionally, there is a de facto blockade that was imposed in the Kerch Strait by Russian authorities preventing Ukrainian ships from entering or leaving the Sea of Azov, and the fact that Moscow has deployed S-400 missile systems to Crimea doesn’t help in deescalating the situation either.
Poroshenko has been calling on the NATO and Western Leaders to support his country in this crisis. One of his requests was directed at Angela Merkel, suggesting to “increase existing economic Sanctions” on Russia and to reconsider Nord Stream 2 –planned expansion of the Nord Stream sub-sea natural gas pipeline project that connects Russian supply to Western European market demand. He argues that this would lead to increased EU dependency on Russian energy and would harm his own country’s revenue stream from the pipeline.
Merkel reacted cautiously, stating that the project would be continued, but condemning Russia’s course of action and pointing out that it is pursuing a policy of interference in Eastern European countries like Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The NATO also made clear that, while supporting Ukraine and criticizing what happened, the country is not a member of its organization, and thus, they face no real obligations to intervene. A multitude of Western leaders have joined the condemnation of Russian actions, with U.S. president Trump even calling off a bilateral meeting with Putin at the G20 summit.
Despite this, it is questionable how much action will be following all these big words and symbolic gestures. The fact that Russia is daring to engage in such aggressions without any hesitation should be a red-flag to the West and shows that more needs to be done if they are serious about stopping the bullies in the Kremlin.
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