The Venezuelan Question
On March 5th, 2013, Hugo Chavez, the most divisive Latin American leader of the 21st century died in Caracas, Venezuela. Mr. Chavez’s death was announced by then Vice-President, Nicolas Maduro, a man who embodies the disaster of Venezuela’s decline into utter turmoil. Today, Venezuela represents the epitome of economic mismanagement and with tensions building between Venezuela and its neighbors, the next few months will certainly see radical change occurring in Venezuela.
Since Mr. Chavez’s death, Venezuela’s economy has experienced the worst economic collapse in the 21st century. Inflation in this once prosperous petrol-state stands at a whopping 80.000%, making the Venezuelan Bolivar entirely useless.
“Everyday people, especially the middle class and the poor, the supposed champions of Chavez’s socialist revolution, wait for an entire day to buy a loaf bread” says Marcus Cheberman, a fourth year International Relations student from Caracas. “Whenever I go back there, some other disaster happens. It’s really shocking to see the damage that has happened to my country”.
Just across from the Venezuelan town of Táchira, lies the eastern Colombian city of Cúcuta. Although united by a common language, culture, and history, these two cities face very different futures. Since the humanitarian crisis began, an estimated 2.5 million Venezuelans have fled to Colombia alone.
“Of course the Colombia government has to welcome Venezuelans” says Ana María Rodriguez, a second year LLB-BIR student from Bogota. “During Colombia’s darkest days, thousands of Colombians went to Venezuela for similar reasons we are seeing today. These people are desperately seeking food, safety, and shelter, basic human necessities that have been taken away in Venezuela.”
Although the perspective of the Colombian government has mostly been sympathetic towards Venezuelan migrants, welcoming and integrating them into Colombian society does not come without its challenges. The government is facing serious obstacles from the influx of Venezuelans into Colombia. As of 2014, 61.2% of Colombian jobs are informal, which allows unregistered Venezuelans to directly participate in the economy, which in turn drives the wages of low income workers down, negatively impacting the lower class. Furthermore, unregistered workers have no access to a system of pensions or social care, thereby furthering the systemic issue of taxation in Colombia.
Tensions between the Venezuelan government and its neighbors have risen drastically over the past year. On the 23rd of January, most South American countries with the exception of Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Mexico backed the President of the Assembly, Juan Guiado as the interim president.
On February 4th, the United States, Canada, and most European Union member states backed Mr. Guiado as well, representing a devastating blow to Mr. Maduro’s ability to portray himself as the democratically elected leader of Venezuela. The Vice President of the United States, Mike Pence has become a key figure in demonstrating US solidarity with Mr. Guiado.
In a recent speech, Mr. Pence stated that “all options are on the table” when considering removing Mr. Maduro from office and that now “was not a time for dialogue, but a time for action”. The United States however is isolated in its threat of military action. European Union leaders have made it clear that their states will not be participating in a military intervention.
The spokeswoman for Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the European Union stated that “we must avoid a military intervention, while actively seeking a peaceful political and democratic and Venezuelan-owned resolution of this crisis”.
“The solution to this crisis must come from within Venezuela” said Simon Behar, a Colombian fourth year BBA student. “The Colombian government should never use its military to attack Venezuela, this would only cause further conflict. What Colombia needs to do is continue supporting the Mr. Guiado while working with the US to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis”.
International pressure is continuing to grow on Mr. Maduro. On the 23rd of February, Mr. Maduro ordered trucks bringing aid into Venezuela from Colombia and Brazil to be burned, sparking riots which killed four people and injured hundreds.
“There is no way he can keep this up. His own military is turning against him as the Cuban intelligence services operating in Venezuela continue to lose their propaganda war” said Marcos Cheberman. “I hope we can find a diplomatic solution, but as everyday passes, more and more people are dying. It’s looking like civil war could break out any day. What’s strange is this, we used to be the richest country in South America. My country is a sad reflection of paradise lost.”